On-treatment circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) quantification is touted as a surrogate biomarker for understanding metastatic cancer response to systemic therapy, but there is relatively little supporting data from standardized patient cohorts. Here, in a prospective observational cohort, we demonstrate that 4-week on-treatment changes in plasma ctDNA levels can accurately identify metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer that will progress within 6 months of initiating first-line abiraterone or enzalutamide treatment. On-treatment ctDNA measurements outperformed existing clinical variables for predicting disease response and were also closely associated with differential overall survival. Although optimal timing of blood collections and thresholds for ctDNA detection will require further testing, our data highlights the potential for sequential ctDNA measurements to provide an early and reliable read-out for therapy response. The high accuracy of this information suggests that ctDNA could be useful for guiding clinical trials of therapy changes in initially non-responsive ... (Show More)

On-treatment circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) quantification is touted as a surrogate biomarker for understanding metastatic cancer response to systemic therapy, but there is relatively little supporting data from standardized patient cohorts. Here, in a prospective observational cohort, we demonstrate that 4-week on-treatment changes in plasma ctDNA levels can accurately identify metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer that will progress within 6 months of initiating first-line abiraterone or enzalutamide treatment. On-treatment ctDNA measurements outperformed existing clinical variables for predicting disease response and were also closely associated with differential overall survival. Although optimal timing of blood collections and thresholds for ctDNA detection will require further testing, our data highlights the potential for sequential ctDNA measurements to provide an early and reliable read-out for therapy response. The high accuracy of this information suggests that ctDNA could be useful for guiding clinical trials of therapy changes in initially non-responsive metastatic cancers.

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