The incidence of acute myeloid leukemia (AML) increases with age and mortality exceeds 90% when diagnosed after age 60. Only 10-15% of cases evolve from a pre-existing myeloproliferative or myelodysplastic disorder; the remaining cases arise de novo without a detectable prodrome and are diagnosed upon development of bone marrow failure. Analysis of diagnostic blood samples has demonstrated that de novo AML is preceded by the accumulation of somatic mutations in pre-leukemic hematopoietic stem and progenitor cells (preL-HSPCs) that subsequently undergo clonal expansion. If individuals in this pre-leukemic phase could be identified, methods for determination of risk and monitoring for progression to overt AML could be developed. However recurrent AML mutations also accumulate during aging in healthy individuals who never develop AML, referred to as age related clonal hematopoiesis (ARCH). To distinguish individuals with preL-HSPCs at high risk of developing AML from those with ARCH, we undertook deep targeted sequencing of genes recurrently mutated in AML in blood samples from 133 individuals in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study taken on average 6 years before they developed AML (pre-AML group), together with 683 matched healthy individuals (Control group). Pre-AML cases displayed accelerated age-correlated accumulation of somatic mutations.The identity, number and variant allele frequency (VAF) of mutations differed between the two groups, and were incorporated into a computational model of AML risk prediction that accurately distinguished pre-AML cases from controls on average 7 years prior to AML development. ... (Show More)

The incidence of acute myeloid leukemia (AML) increases with age and mortality exceeds 90% when diagnosed after age 60. Only 10-15% of cases evolve from a pre-existing myeloproliferative or myelodysplastic disorder; the remaining cases arise de novo without a detectable prodrome and are diagnosed upon development of bone marrow failure. Analysis of diagnostic blood samples has demonstrated that de novo AML is preceded by the accumulation of somatic mutations in pre-leukemic hematopoietic stem and progenitor cells (preL-HSPCs) that subsequently undergo clonal expansion. If individuals in this pre-leukemic phase could be identified, methods for determination of risk and monitoring for progression to overt AML could be developed. However recurrent AML mutations also accumulate during aging in healthy individuals who never develop AML, referred to as age related clonal hematopoiesis (ARCH). To distinguish individuals with preL-HSPCs at high risk of developing AML from those with ARCH, we undertook deep targeted sequencing of genes recurrently mutated in AML in blood samples from 133 individuals in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study taken on average 6 years before they developed AML (pre-AML group), together with 683 matched healthy individuals (Control group). Pre-AML cases displayed accelerated age-correlated accumulation of somatic mutations.The identity, number and variant allele frequency (VAF) of mutations differed between the two groups, and were incorporated into a computational model of AML risk prediction that accurately distinguished pre-AML cases from controls on average 7 years prior to AML development. Our findings provide proof of concept that early prediction of AML development is feasible in high-risk populations, paving the way for early disease detection, monitoring, and potentially prevention.

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